What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
Also said: “the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116”
- Who
- Katja Grace et al.AI Impacts; survey of authors who published at top AI venues · global
- Said
- Jan 5, 2024
- About
- high-level machine intelligence
- For when
- 2047 (50%)
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- academic paper
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
Our note: Survey results as stated in the arXiv abstract (v1 submitted 2024-01-05; v3 dated 2025-10-08).
What the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.