Will AI take graphic designer jobs? The evidence so far

What the government says

The official outlook.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects every job ten years ahead and says what it expects to drive the change.

In the government's words

“Automated design tools, such as artificial intelligence (AI)”

Part of a longer sentence. BLS projects these tools will make designers more productive and reduce the need for them.

BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Aug 27, 2026

US jobs, 2025: 253,100
Median pay, 2025: $62,960 per year
Outlook, 2025 to 35: -2% (Decline)

The work itself

The job's main tasks.

As the government's O*NET database lists them. AI's effect on a job depends on which of these tasks it can do.

01Key information into computer equipment to create layouts for client or supervisor.
02Review final layouts and suggest improvements, as needed.
03Determine size and arrangement of illustrative material and copy, and select style and size of type.
04Develop graphics and layouts for product illustrations, company logos, and Web sites.
05Create designs, concepts, and sample layouts, based on knowledge of layout principles and esthetic design concepts.

O*NET OnLine, Oct 6, 2026

The evidence on AI

What studies have found.

We haven't found a trial or study of AI in this job yet. The score below is the best measure so far of how much its work overlaps with what people do with AI.

AI applicability scoreCompany-reported

0.23on a scale from 0 to 1

01

Microsoft AI applicability score for Graphic Designers (SOC 27-1024)

How much of the occupation's work activities overlap with what people successfully do with Microsoft's Bing Copilot; not a forecast of job loss.

Microsoft Research, Working with AI, Dec 22, 2025 · data licensed CC BY 4.0

Can AI do it yet?

How far the evidence has got for tasks this job involves, on our six-step ladder.

Every task