What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“I personally would guess about 50% chance by end of 2028.”
Also said: “It's unclear when they will succeed but my team and I think it could happen any year now.”
- Who
- Daniel KokotajloExecutive Director, AI Futures Project; co-author of AI 2027 · US
- Said
- Sep 30, 2026
- About
- AI that automates AI research
- For when
- end of 2028 (50%)
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- primary (testimony text)
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
Other predictions.
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Daniel Kokotajlo, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.