What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“Daniel's Automated Coder (AC) median has moved from late 2029 to mid 2028.”
- Who
- Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli LiflandAI Futures Project · US
- Said
- Apr 2, 2026
- About
- “Automated Coder”: AI that can do the coding work of an AI company
- For when
- mid 2028 (Kokotajlo median); mid 2030 (Lifland median, moved from early 2032)
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- primary (forecasters' own post)
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
Our note: Their scenario AI 2027 (April 2025) placed this milestone in 2027; Gary Marcus wrote on 21 Nov 2025 that the scenario had been 'postponed, by its co-creator'.
Other predictions.
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.