The prediction
What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.”
- Who
- Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic · US
- Said
- Oct 2024
- About
- “powerful AI”, which he defines as, among other things, “smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most relevant fields”
- For when
- as early as 2026
- Where it stands
- Due this year (2026), not yet resolved
- Kind of source
- company-reported (CEO's own essay)
What was measured
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date has come, but we haven't found an independent measure that settles it yet. See what the tests measure.
More from Dario Amodei and others
Other predictions.
Watch
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Dario Amodei, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.