Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · Edition updated 6:00 AM ETTUE, OCT 27 editionNext edition in Next in --:--:--
Intelligence Verdict
Can AI do it yet? · Work

Can AI make scientific discoveries yet?

METR's count of public records suggests AI has sped up some maths discoveries in 2026 but not improvements to algorithms; the FDA has only draft guidance on AI used in drug development.

  • 3 of 6Independently tested
  • 2pieces of evidence
The answer

Stage 3: independently tested.

The rule that placed itSomeone other than the maker has tested it: an independent benchmark, a peer-reviewed paper, or a hands-on test by a trusted outlet.

The evidenceMETR's study of public records found maths results have come faster in 2026, including three open problems solved with AI, but no clear speed-up in improvements to algorithms. It calls the evidence from solved open problems weak. METR, Have We Seen an Acceleration in Discoveries?, Aug 14, 2026.

A stage says how far the evidence has got. It is not a rating of the AI and not advice.

  1. 1
    ClaimedNo evidence yet
  2. 2
    LaunchedNo evidence yet
  3. 3
    Independently testedPlaced here
  4. 4
    Tested with real peopleNo evidence yet
  5. 5
    Regulator-clearedNo approval process exists
  6. 6
    Widely used with a verified recordNo evidence yet
The evidence

Everything we found.

In ladder order, newest first within each kind. Makers' own claims are labeled as theirs.

Tested

What independent tests found

  • METR

    METR's study of public records found maths results have come faster in 2026, including three open problems solved with AI, but no clear speed-up in improvements to algorithms. It calls the evidence from solved open problems weak.

    “Discovery of math results has accelerated somewhat.”

    METR, Have We Seen an Acceleration in Discoveries? · Aug 14, 2026

Regulator

Rules and approvals

  • US · Rule · US Food and Drug Administration

    The FDA issued draft guidance on how to judge the credibility of AI models used in drug and biological product submissions, its first guidance on AI in drug development.

    “This is the first guidance the agency has issued on the use of AI for the development of drug and biological products.”

    US Food and Drug Administration · Jan 6, 2025

Not found in our sources yet: what the makers claim; what has launched; tested with real people; how many people use it. No regulator approves AI for this task, so the approval step doesn't apply.

Beside the stage

Track record and tools.

Failures and court cases are shown beside the stage, never folded into it. Tools are listed because the evidence names them, in no order of merit.

Tools named in the evidence
  • AlphaEvolve
  • GPT-5.4 Pro