What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year. And I would say no later than next year.”
Also said: “And then probably by 2030 or 2031, call it five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.”
- Who
- Elon MuskCEO, Tesla and xAI · US
- Said
- Jan 2026
- About
- AI smarter than any human
- For when
- end of 2026, no later than 2027
- Where it stands
- Due this year (2026), not yet resolved
- Kind of source
- third-party transcript
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date has come, but we haven't found an independent measure that settles it yet. See what the tests measure.
Our note: Rev lists the transcript as published 25 Jan 2026; homepage data gives the session date as 22 Jan 2026.
Other predictions.
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Elon Musk, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.