What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“I think it's probably next year, within two years.”
- Who
- Elon MuskCEO, Tesla and xAI · US
- Said
- Apr 8, 2024
- About
- AGI, which he defined in the same remark: “If you define AGI (artificial general intelligence) as smarter than the smartest human”
- For when
- 2025, within two years (2026)
- Where it stands
- First date passed (2025); second (2026) still running
- Kind of source
- Reuters report (republished by BusinessDay)
What has happened since.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
2025 passed without a generally accepted AGI. In Jan 2026 Musk moved the date: “I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year.”. The Metaculus community forecast for a general AI system, read on 2026-10-19, is 14 Feb 2031.
Sources: rev.com · metaculus.com
Other predictions.
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Elon Musk, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.