The prediction
What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“And so, yeah, I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028.”
- Who
- Shane LeggCo-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind · UK/US
- Said
- Oct 26, 2023
- About
- AGI
- For when
- 2028 (50% chance)
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- interview
What was measured
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
On the same subject
Other predictions.
What the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.