The prediction
What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“AGI ain't actually coming in 2027”
- Who
- Gary MarcusCognitive scientist and AI critic, NYU professor emeritus · US
- Said
- Nov 21, 2025
- About
- AGI
- For when
- not in 2027; also wrote AGI “is NOT in fact coming in Trump's second term, and never was” (i.e. not before Jan 2029)
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- author's own newsletter
- The bet
- Bet with Miles Brundage (30 Dec 2024): if AI systems can do 8 of 10 named tasks “by the end of 2027” Marcus donates $2,000; if fewer than 8, Brundage donates $20,000.Terms, Dec 30, 2024
What was measured
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
On the same subject
Other predictions.
Watch
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Gary Marcus, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.