What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work that a man can do.”
- Who
- Herbert A. SimonAI pioneer, Carnegie Mellon University · US
- Said
- 1965
- About
- machines doing any human work
- For when
- 1985
- Where it stands
- Date passed
- Kind of source
- quote research site (Quote Investigator) citing the book
What has happened since.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
1985 passed without machines able to do any work a person can do. A survey of AI researchers published in 2024 put a 50% chance of unaided machines outperforming humans at every task at 2047 (Grace et al.).
Sources: arxiv.org
Other predictions.
What the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.