What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“Now I think it's maybe five to 20 years before we get superintelligence.”
Also said: “I thought it would be 50 to 100 years.” “Maybe longer, but it's coming quicker than I thought.”
- Who
- Geoffrey HintonAI researcher, University of Toronto (often called a “godfather of AI”) · Canada/UK
- Said
- Jan 2025
- About
- superintelligence
- For when
- about 2030–2045 (counted from Jan 2025)
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- news (CBC)
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
Our note: CBC's page shows no date; its Yahoo republication shows 11 Jan 2025. CBC is not on our trusted list but is a public broadcaster; the year range is our arithmetic.
Other predictions.
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Geoffrey Hinton, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.