What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“But when it comes to ASI it's a totally different story. [With] ASI, you will see a big improvement.”
- Who
- Masayoshi SonCEO, SoftBank · Japan
- Said
- Jun 21, 2024
- About
- artificial superintelligence; CNBC reports he said AI “10,000 times smarter than humans will be here in 10 years”
- For when
- ASI by about 2034; AGI in three to five years (CNBC's summary)
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- news (CNBC, republished by NBC Chicago)
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
Our note: The '10 years' timeline is CNBC's report of his words, not a direct quote; the venue (shareholder meeting) is from CNBC's description as we read it.
Other predictions.
What the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.