What was said.
Quoted word for word from the source and dated. Where a span such as “three to five years” was given, the years are our arithmetic from the day it was said. Checked Oct 19, 2026.
“it's conceivable that within the next ten years, AI systems will exceed expert skill level in most domains”
- Who
- Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and Ilya SutskeverOpenAI CEO, president and then chief scientist · US
- Said
- May 22, 2023
- About
- AI exceeding expert skill (in a post on superintelligence)
- For when
- by about 2033
- Where it stands
- Open
- Kind of source
- company-reported
Nothing to check yet.
Independent measures and reporting only, with their sources. One test never settles a prediction about AGI, and none measures AGI itself.
Its date hasn't come yet. Until it does, the tests on Superintelligence watch show how far the best AI has got. See what the tests measure.
Our note: The 2033 year is our arithmetic.
Other predictions.
Watch them explain it.
Talks and interviews with Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and Ilya Sutskever, with our short summary of each.
All videos about AIIntroducing GPT-5
OpenAI's livestream launching GPT-5, in which Sam Altman and members of the team introduce the model and demonstrate it.
Made by the company itselfAI agents · OpenAI · Jan 23, 2025Introduction to Operator & Agents
OpenAI introduces Operator, its first agent product, in a livestream that demonstrates the agent carrying out tasks for users.
Made by the company itselfAI agents · OpenAI · Jul 17, 2025Introduction to ChatGPT agent
OpenAI presents ChatGPT agent, a single agentic model built into ChatGPT, and shows it working in a live demo.
Made by the company itselfWhat the words mean. People define AGI and superintelligence very differently, and the definition decides whether a prediction came true. See how each lab and researcher defines them, or the plain meanings in our glossary.